A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
